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東海大學統計學系---【學術演講公告】111年10月4日(二)

【學術演講公告】111年10月4日(二)

  • 單位 : 統計學系
  • 分類 :
  • 點閱 : 170
  • 日期 : 2022-10-01
時  間:111年10月4日(星期二下午14:10~15:00)
地  點:管理學院新大樓M242
主講人:曾議寬 教授 (中央大學 統計研究所)
講  題:Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-index based on semiparametric hazards regression model

Abstract
  To connect with survival model, the time-dependent ROC curves for the Cox model with fixed covariates has been derived not only for dynamic prediction but also for the model evaluation based on the average time-dependent AUC (the area under the ROC curves), which is proven to be a concordance summary measure for predictive accuracy. However, the Cox regression model needs a proportional hazards assumption which may fail in some of the medical studies. In such situation, we develop an approach to replace the Cox model by the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and proportional odds (PO) model to derive time-dependent sensitivity and specificity. Since the weighted average time-dependent AUC can be proven to be a concordance measure (C-index), for prediction purpose, we may select a better model between the incorporated regression models by choosing a model with higher predictive accuracy. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed approach. A case study of Taiwanese HIV cohort data is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model-base time-dependent AUC and predictive accuracy.

Keywords: AFT model, Cox model, joint model, proportional odds model, time-dependent AUC